One Down, 10 To Go For the Dodgers

The boys in blue took care of business in Game 1 of the NLDS. A win tonight will go a long way in charting their course to their fourth World Series in six years.

Gavin Lux bear hugs the Dodgers’’ NLDS Game 1 MVP, Trea Turner, after L.A. defeats the Padres (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

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Hi friends-

First, a programming note: We are going to keep doing daily playoff threads until the postseason is over, because you guys seem to really like them. Yesterday you posted nearly 500 (!) comments. Thank you!

As a reminder to those of you who have not yet participated in our chats: We have fans of all teams posting, and we do not tolerate bullying or harassment or any other BS that sports fans have to deal with in the cesspool that is Twitter. The people in our game threads are so lovely I never have to remind them to knock it off or tone it down. One of my pet peeves in life is when people get made fun of for loving something harmless (like a sports team), so these threads are my utopia. We will be rocking out again today during the two National League Division Series games. If you wanna hang out with us, you can do that by becoming a paid subscriber now:

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I.

I’ve been working hard in physical therapy so that I can handle climbing stadium stairs to attend October playoff games. Being able to comfortably return to Dodger Stadium for baseball for the first time since I caught COVID there during the All-Star Game back in July was a huge win for me that I don’t take lightly. I’ll write more about how my recovery is going this off-season, but suffice to say there have been ups and downs. I’m doing better on the whole, but on Monday I could barely get out of bed. I am lucky that the NLDS began on Tuesday. I’m gonna watch Game 2 tonight from home to give my body a rest, but, golly, last night was so fun!

First, some things you didn’t see on television:

That gentleman sitting in the front row with a legal pad taking notes is none other than MLB super-agent Scott Boras, who represents Julío Urías, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Juan Soto and Jurickson Profar, among others.

Those are Boras’ season seats, and I’ve seen him at Dodger Stadium 100+ times over the years. His attendance at a playoff game is not noteworthy. But I’ve never seen him taking notes before, and I’m dying to know what the heck he was scribbling down. I will ask Boras the next time I see him, but until then, I like to imagine he was jotting down Julío Urías salary arbitration numbers with hearts and stars next to them, crossing them out and adding to the total each time Urías struck out a Padres hitter.

Anyway, I just thought it was cool and weird and funny that Boras himself was jotting down ideas when he has a dozen underlings on his payroll that could do that for him. I didn’t tweet that picture because I didn’t want people to think I was suggesting something nefarious or annoying. It was just the most powerful man in the sport casually taking handwritten notes in the front row. And now I really want to know what he felt was so worth writing down. Let me know your guesses in the comment section!

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The even-more-bizarre thing to happen during the Dodgers vs. Padres playoff game last night? Rain!

I’ve been to hundreds of baseball games at Dodger Stadium in my life, and last night was the first time I’ve ever been rained on. I know precipitation is no big deal for those of you who attend baseball games in any market outside Southern California, but it’s so rare here that it felt damn near apocalyptic. The last rain delay at Dodger Stadium was April 7, 2015 (also against the Padres. I must not have been there or I’d remember it). The last rainout at Dodger Stadium happened on April 17, 2000, (against the Houston Astros, if you’re looking at this rain as an omen for a World Series prediction).

After watching the Dodgers lose in the playoffs in eight out of the last nine Octobers, I do not believe the baseball gods are Dodger fans. However, last night it began raining out of nowhere when the Padres came up to bat in the top of the 8th inning, then it stopped when the Dodgers batted in the bottom of the 8th, then it picked up even harder when the Padres batted again in the 9th.

I mention this because from my seat in the infield reserve level with a straight-shot view down the leftfield line, I thought the fly ball Manny Machado hit in the 8th was going to be a home run to cut the Dodgers’ lead from 5-3 to 5-4. Leftfielder Trayce Thompson seemed to think so, too, because he moved back toward the short wall near the foul pole. But the ball hung up in the thick misty air for what felt like forever, and the rain and wind seemed to knock it down. Thompson had to scurry back in and a bit toward center in the direction the wind was blowing to catch it for the final out of the inning.

Do I think the Padres got screwed by the weather? Perhaps. This is what it looked like right after they took their final at-bats in the ninth:

Molly Knight @molly_knight

Raining pretty hard at Dodger Stadium now as the game ends.

What hurts the Padres even worse than this little cloudburst, however, is the fact that MLB took away an off-day between Games 4 and 5 in the NLDS this October. This is a very strange wrinkle that is hurting my brain, especially because both American League Division Series now have an off-day today between Games 1 and 2. These changes are due to the lockout shortening the number of days on the calendar that MLB has to complete the season before it becomes way too cold in some parts of the country to play baseball outdoors. This lack of off-day on Sunday is an absolute disaster for the Padres, who will have to either use Mike Clevinger in Game 5 (if the series goes that far), or Game 2 starter Yu Darvish on short rest.

I can already feel myself fighting for Darvish’s life on Twitter if he fails to perform in that game because his arm has fallen off.

Because of this format, the Padres basically have to win Game 2 tonight to have any chance whatsoever of taking this series. I understand that coming back from down 2-0 is a nightmare under even the best of circumstances—especially against a 111-win team like the Dodgers— but I do not believe Clevinger beating the Dodgers is possible.

Bill Shaikin @BillShaikin

Mike Clevinger vs Dodgers so far this season: 14 IP, 6 HR, 10.29 ERA.

We are a long way from a potential Game 5, obviously. But if the Dodgers make short work of the Padres this week, they will owe a playoff share to Jacob deGrom of the Mets for forcing New York’s wild-card series vs. the Padres to go three games. Had he not done that, the Dodgers would have faced Joe “Magic Ears” Musgrove last night in Game 1, and he would be lined up to pitch a potential Game 5 on regular rest. In that scenario, the Padres chances of beating the Dodgers in the NLDS are exponentially higher than they are here on Earth 1.

So if you’re keeping score at home, this Dodgers’ team has gotten three big assists so far this postseason: from the lockout, the Mets and Mother Nature.

Maybe they were due some breaks after losing Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy and Max Scherzer down the stretch last season? Luck is so important in October, and so far this fickle mistress seems to be on the Dodgers’ side.

Their strong position is not all down to luck, however. The reason the Dodgers got to set up their rotation exactly how they wanted while the Padres had to start their fourth-best pitcher against L.A’.s ace is because the Dodgers earned a bye into the second round after they won 111 freaking regular-season games. MLB purists do not like expanded playoffs, in part because they believe it takes the meaning out of a team winning its division during the regular season. I think we are seeing now that the new bye system for MLB’s top four teams offers a big advantage, and one that makes October more fair for the big dogs who dominated the sport from April through September. Freddie Freeman said this better than I ever could:

Fabian Ardaya @FabianArdaya

Freddie Freeman on the Padres: “They’re hot, and we’ve been hot for seven months.”

I thought the Padres would be competitive against the Dodgers this series, but I don’t think I fully grasped how the schedule stacked against them. It was already going to be a nightmare for San Diego to overcome the Dodgers’ depth in a five-game series. But having to do it without getting to use one of their three best pitchers twice on regular rest? I’m just not sure I see a path for them to win.

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II.

I cannot end today’s newsletter without acknowledging what happened to the Seattle Mariners in Houston yesterday. I was not watching the ninth inning of that ball game because I was (slowly) making my way into Dodger Stadium. However, I knew things were breaking bad when my friend Craig texted me this, out of seemingly nowhere:

“Ray?” I thought. “The Mariners must have a reliever with Ray as a first name. They cannot seriously be going to starter Robbie Ray in the bottom of the ninth here?????”

But they did go to Robbie Ray. And, you know the rest:

MLB @MLB

Dykstra. Gibson. Carter. Alvarez. Yesterday, Yordan Alvarez became only the FOURTH player in MLB history to hit a postseason walk-off home run with his team trailing. 😱

The Mariners just will not stop delivering generational traumas to multiple fanbases this October! Whether they are coming back from the biggest postseason deficit ever or providing the Houston Astros with their own Joe Carter moment, this Seattle team has become a living, breathing answer to multiple trivia questions!

Bringing in a starter to close a tight playoff game with runners on base is like asking my one-year-old puppy to drive to Home Depot and pick up some crazy glue. And actually, my dog would have a better chance of surviving that errand without leaving a pile of bodies in his wake than Ray did.

Starting pitchers are used to being able to settle into ball games before they have to make perfect pitches. Ray had to be absolutely perfect with each pitch to Alvarez from the time he toed the rubber. This is not what he does. I will continue to scream about the stupidity of asking starting pitchers to do this until it stops happening. Giants starter Madison Bumgarner successfully closed Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, and at the time we all thought it was cool and neat and badass. In retrospect, it was one of the worst things to happen to the modern game, because it ruined the brains of a nation of otherwise intelligent MLB managers and GMs.

I’ve seen so many aces try and fail to relieve October games on short rest at this point I think I’m developing PTSD over it. And even when a guy can pull off this near-impossible feat (as Max Scherzer did during Game 5 of the NLDS vs. the Giants last October) there are almost always horrible consequences for that player’s team going forward. (Scherzer developed a dead arm and pitched terribly the next time he took the ball during the NLCS, then was unable to pitch at all when it was his turn days later with the Dodgers facing elimination).

Not only did the Mariners blow a game they should have stolen vs. a subpar Justin Verlander, they also threw their second-best starting pitcher into a salad spinner of doubt for no good reason, which cannot bode well for the next time he takes the ball.

Panicked and sweaty moves do not work in October, especially against a team with as much postseason experience as the Astros. It was the worst playoff decision since Rays manager Kevin Cash pulled a dominant Blake Snell out of Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. And the worst part is Mariners’ manager Scott Servais said after the game that bringing in Ray to face Alvarez was a pre-meditated event, and most likely signed off on by Seattle’s president of baseball operations, Jerry DiPoto, who is an intelligent human being. What. Are. We. Doing. Here. (???????)

LOLKNBR @LOLKNBR

"They tried what with Robbie Ray?"

One hundred and sixteen miles per hour off the bat:

David Adler @_dadler

#MLBFieldVision -- Yordan Alvarez's 116.7 mph, 438-foot walk-off home run off Robbie Ray

Is now a good time to remind people that Yordan Alvarez used to be a Dodger but Andrew Friedman traded him away for a middling reliever before Alvarez ever took a professional at-bat in the minors? LOL. That’s a newsletter for another day.

See you guys in the NLDS game thread at 2:07 PM PT/ 5:07 PM ET later today!