Revisiting Five Bold Preseason Predictions (Part II)

Let's see how wrong (and right?) I've been so far.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently the best player on the best team. But a lot could change! (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

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Ok, now let’s get to the good stuff. On Friday I assessed how I’m doing so far on five of my 10 bold preseason predictions for this MLB season. The results were... mixed! I was right about Shohei Ohtani and Corbin Carroll being frontrunners for MVP and Rookie of the Year, respectively, and about the Angels being in contention for a playoff spot (!) because the Astros are down. I was very wrong about Gerrit Cole—he’s been the second-best pitcher in the American League (after Shane McClanahan) since cleaning up his home run problem from last year— and Trea Turner, who has looked like he’s playing with kettlebells wrapped around his ankles. It is early, and we’ve got a long way to go before we know if any of these predictions will hit. (Though if Ohtani and Trout make the playoffs, we’re all going streaking.)

So let’s pick up where we left off with my top five bold predictions:

No 5: Gunnar Henderson will win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Here’s what I wrote the night before the season started:

Up until a few weeks ago, Henderson cruising to this award was not a bold prediction at all. Then rookie Anthony Volpe was anointed Derek Jeter’s heir apparent as the Yankees’ next franchise shortstop, and the entire baseball world lost its mind. Yes, Volpe is good. No, he’s not as good as Henderson. We would not even be having this conversation had I not received an email this morning alerting me to the fact that Volpe has just overtaken Henderson as the odds-on favorite in Vegas to win the ROY award.

To be clear: I’m all in on Volpe, who stole 50 bases and hit 21 home runs in the minors last year. (And here’s a sweet video of him being told he made the Yankees’ Opening Day roster). It’s just that Henderson stole 21 bases and hit 19 home runs in 20 fewer minor league games than Volpe last year, and posted an OPS (.947) that was 145 points higher than Volpe’s (.802).

These two are only two months apart in age, and they’re both going to be stars in the AL East for a long time. But I give the slight edge to Henderson because he got crucial experience as a September call-up last season, while Volpe has yet to play in an MLB game.

Full disclosure: I have both of these players on my fantasy team AND I’ve been watching a lot of Orioles and Yankee games this year because I always watch the Yankees, and the Orioles are maybe the most-fun team in baseball right now (not including the Rays).

Alas, neither Volpe nor Henderson has been very good so far. Henderson is hitting .174 with a .339 OBP and a .304 SLG. He’s walking a ton (24 BB), but he’s also striking out a lot (36 Ks ties him for 21st-most in the AL). Even worse, he’s swinging and missing more than 94% of all other MLB players, striking out 30% of the time, and playing defense so poorly that Baseball Savant says 99% of all MLB players have generated more outs than he has. Gulp. Sigh. Deep breaths. He’s still only 21, and his on-base percentage bodes well long-term. But this doesn’t look like his year. Barring a dramatic improvement, I do not see him winning AL Rookie of the Year.

But