Shohei Ohtani Could Become First Player Ever to Win MVP as a Designated Hitter
The Free Friday Newsletter
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Hi friends-
First, some housekeeping:
We have a book club selection for May/June! It’s Sandy Koufax: A Lefty’s Legacy by Jane Leavy. We will have a zoom discussion about the book on Monday, July 1st from 5:30-6:30 PM PT.
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OK. Before I start in on how good Shohei Ohtani has been and what it could mean for the history books I obviously need to point out that it is May 10th. We are just 24.1% into this season. Ohtani could slump. He could foul a ball off his foot and miss six weeks. He could catch a stomach bug and lose 20 pounds like Keibert Ruiz and not be right until next year. Teams could stop pitching to him and take their chances with Frederick Charles Freeman and William Dills Smith.
But this is where we stand right now: Ohtani leads the majors in runs (32), hits (54), doubles (14), batting average (.355), slugging percentage (.678), OPS (1.103), and total bases (103). He is tied for second in home runs (11), and he has the third-best on-base percentage (.425).
He has stolen nine bases and not been caught once.
If he keeps up his doubles pace he will reach 58—good enough for 11th all time in one season. If he keeps up his total base clip he will end up with 429, which would tie him for sixth all-time with Stan Musial’s 1948 MVP season. All five men to tally more total bases in a season played in in the 20’s and 30’s, when hitters faced pitchers who were also plumbers and teachers on days they didn’t pitch and MLB only allowed white people to play.
I am not surprised Ohtani is putting up the biggest offensive numbers of his career now that he’s hitting in a loaded line-up. But friends, I must admit it is shocking to me that the scandal involving Ippei Mizuhara has not impacted Ohtani’s play at all.
I cannot begin to explain how upside down I would feel if my best friend/confidante/personal assistant/lifeline in a foreign country stole millions of dollars from me to do some illegal s—t that put my career and reputation on the line. But I can tell you that it would be difficult for me to get out of bed and/or trust anyone ever again.
We often forget that pro athletes are also human beings. They go through divorces. They endure traumas like friends and family getting sick and dying, infertility and pregnancy loss, mental health challenges, and the same destabilizing forces that knock all of us sideways.
When good players have down years analysts look for physical injuries because mental and emotional wounds are often invisible. I am thinking about the year Jake Peavy stunk and it turned out that not only had his wife left him but his friend scammed out of $15 million. I am thinking of Josh Hamilton’s never-ending battle with alcoholism, and Chuck Knoblauch catching the yips.
Nobody would have batted an eyelash had Ohtani stumbled a bit due to the fact that he had to sit down with the FBI to discuss his best friend’s criminal and extremely public betrayal after playing two games(!) with his new team into his record-setting contract. Let’s not forget that until law enforcement laid out the facts, the public piled on Ohtani and branded him a degenerate gambler. Any normal human being would have vomited into a trash bin before each AB and struggled not to cry when stepping into the batter’s box.
Friends, he is not normal!
(Mizuhara, by the way, is expected to plead guilty to bank and tax fraud next week in conjunction with stealing $17 million from Ohtani to pay his gambling debts. He is facing up to 33 years in federal prison. Feel free to pass along this information to anyone who still thinks Ohtani was gambling and Mizuhara is simply the fall guy. Mizuhara is likely to be deported to Japan, where he is public enemy #1. His life is ruined.)
Anyway, a player getting off to a hot start through the season’s first 40 games like Ohtani has isn’t news. But here’s where it gets interesting: if Ohtani keeps this up, he will be a strong contender to win the National League’s Most Valuable Player award. In fact, the only NL player worth more Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in all of MLB right now is Ohtani’s teammate Mookie Betts. Ohtani is at 2.5 bWAR; Betts is at 2.7.
I’m telling you this because no designated hitter has ever won the MVP award in either league since the DH was instituted in 1973. Here are the best seasons for designated hitters in baseball history, ranked by WAR:
Edgar Martinez—an absolute beast— finished third in MVP voting in 1995, behind Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle.
Reader, Ohtani is on-pace for a 10.4 WAR season. Just based on offensive production.
If Betts finishes anywhere near Ohtani in WAR, he will probably get the nod as he has learned how to play shortstop at age 31 because the Dodgers front office failed to sign or develop someone else who could play that position.
Yes, it is probably way too early to be talking about who will win the MVP award. But I wanted to put what we are witnessing in historical context because what Ohtani is doing is unhinged. The Dodgers knew Ohtani would be one of the best hitters in the league. Still, I don’t think anyone knew he would be *this* good.
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AROUND THE LEAGUE:
The current MLB batting average is .240. This is the fourth worst collective batting average of all-time, trailing only 1908 (.239), 1888 (.239) and 1968 (.237). You may recall they lowered the mound after the 1968 season. They already banned the shift, instituted a pitch clock, and made the bases bigger. Maybe it’s time to juice the balls again.
The Angels only had one security scaner open at last night’s game and the line to get into the stadium was three innings long. This happened despite the fact that paid attendance was only 23,568. (Sam Blum/The Athletic)
Through Wednesday’s games there had been 316 replay reviews. 67 calls were confirmed (21.2%) 85 calls stood (26.9%), and 159 were overturned (50.3%). (Five calls were for rule checks and record keeping). (Buster Olney/ESPN)
A’s phenom closer Mason Miller was asked why he doesn’t run in from the bullpen with the lights off like so many other closers do. He responded that he’s concerned the Oakland Coliseum lights wouldn’t come back on. (Foul Territory)
Dramatically scaling back the workloads of young pitchers has not helped them stay healthy. (JJ Cooper/Baseball America)
The Dodgers have only used a starting pitcher on four days rest twice this season in 39 games. The other 37 games have either been started by a pitcher on at least five days rest or by a relief pitcher. I’m guessing this is the code they believe they’e cracked to keep Tyler Glasnow healthy. (Eric Stephen/ True Blue LA)
The lettering on Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah’s jersey looks insane.
Marlins’ president of baseball operations Peter Bendix says the team is “unlikely to make the playoffs this year.” Every player except Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez figures to be on the trading block. (Craig Mish/Miami Herald).
The A’s have 18 wins. The Giants have 17 wins. The A’s payroll is $81 million. The Giants payroll is $252 million.
Top MLB pitching prospect, Paul Skenes, will debut for the Pirates Saturday. (Alex Stumpf/ MLB.com)
Aaron Judge hit the longest homer in the majors this year (473 feet) and appears to be back on track after a slow start. (David Adler/ MLB.com)
That’s all for this week! I’ll see you in the chats in the Substack app tonight and on Sunday at 4 PM PT.
…and yet the indefatigable Conspiracy Chorus still asserts that Ohtani is to blame.
What I particularly love about this absurdity is that it necessarily assumes that the U.S. Department of Justice, the same outfit that has brought down international terrorists, the Mafia, and corporations like Enron, has somehow been bamboozled (or better still, co-opted) by the criminal masterminds at MLB (i.e., the people who can’t ensure that the tops and bottoms of uniforms match, or that baseballs are the same) and a baseball player who can’t speak English.
It’s absolutely crazy that Mookie playing short has been met with a shrug. His athleticism is mind boggling.