What to do about Paul Skenes?
What to do about Paul Skenes?
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Paul Skenes is the best pitching prospect of the 21st century.
Period.
If it wasn’t evident before yesterday, now there is no doubt: Skenes tossed seven no-hit innings against the Brewers on Thursday, and in doing so became the only other pitcher besides Nolan Ryan to fire at least six no-hit innings with at least 11 strikeouts twice in a season in MLB history. It should be noted, of course, that Skenes just turned 22 years old six weeks ago, and Nolan Ryan is probably the greatest pitcher who ever lived. Skenes has made a total of 11 starts in the major leagues. He is already being mentioned in the same sentence as Ryan, and it’s not an unreasonable comp.
This morning, Skenes was selected to start for the National League in the All-Star game next week. He will become just the fifth rookie pitcher to start an All-Star game, and the first since Hideo Nomo in 1995. Before Nomo, you’d have to go back to Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. So, yeah. Paul Skenes will be the second rookie pitcher to start an all-star game in my lifetime. He has my full attention, and his starts should be appointment television for all of us.
But there’s an undeniable, underlying tension to watching Paul Skenes that goes like this: we are absolutely witnessing one of the greatest arms ever to work from a pitchers mound. And we are also waiting to see how long that arm can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour over and over again without inevitably breaking.
Skenes was pulled from both of his no-hit bids this summer by Pirates’ manager Derek Shelton, whose main job in life right now is to keep his young phenom pitcher healthy. Yesterday, Skenes needed 99 pitches to get through seven. But he only made six pitches in the seventh inning, and induced weak contact on two ground balls and a short fly out to complete a 1-2-3 frame with ease. He appeared to be cruising…..and then Shelton yanked him from the game because he felt like Skenes was losing steam. Uh….. What?
“He was tired,” Shelton explained after the game. “It really didn’t have anything to do with the pitch count. Everybody makes it about pitch counts; it was about where he was at. It was about trusting your eyes, trusting him.”
OK. With all due respect to Shelton, it was absolutely about Skenes’ pitch count. Is he trying to say that if Skenes was at 76 pitches he would have pulled him from a no-hitter after a six-pitch stressless inning based on vibes? There’s no way. I have a better chance pitching for the Pirates this season than Shelton does of yanking a healthy Paul Skenes from a no-hit bid at 76 pitches.
Skenes—who has never tossed a no-hitter at any level—said he was OK with Shelton’s decision. “I wasn't going to be surprised either way, if he sent me out or pulled me," he told MLB Network afterward. "Obviously, in a 1–0 game, you want to stay in there, you want to finish it. But the volume's getting up there a little bit, so I get it."
Skenes was being diplomatic here, and you can hardly blame a rookie for deferring to his manager. I’m not saying Skenes should have thrown a fit. And I’m also not saying that pitchers should be allowed to throw 140 pitches every time out (or ever), because it won’t hurt their arms. Of course it will.
But I think it’s fair to question why 100 pitches is the arbitrary number that this industry is so scared of. Is there any evidence that 108 pitches is more damaging to an arm than 98 pitches? I’m open to it, but I’ve yet to see proof.
What we have here are two competing interests in direct opposition with each other. The first is that baseball needs main character superstars who transcend the sport to compete with the NFL and the NBA to capture the public’s attention. Shohei Ohtani is one. Paul Skenes is another. A dominant no-hitter from Skenes yesterday would have been remembered forever. Seven innings of no-hit ball will not. Shelton not letting Skenes go for a no-hitter hurts the game. Full stop.
But the reason Shelton pulled him is because Skenes suffering a cataclysmic arm injury on his watch would hurt the game even more. And that’s the rub.
Do we know for certain that allowing Skenes to go out for the 8th would have resulted in a strained UCL or a shoulder impingement or triceps tightness? Of course not. Is it possible? Sure! It’s also possible the Dodgers will sign my dog to pitch out of the fifth spot in their rotation until one of their eight injured starting pitchers returns from purgatory.
What would I have done if I were in charge of Skenes yesterday? I would have talked to him, and probably would have let him go back out for the 8th unless he asked out of the game. If he could have managed to throw another 6-10 pitch inning, then he’s at 105-109 heading into the ninth, where I go batter to batter.
I suppose Shelton is influenced by the idea that Skenes will have many more opportunities to throw no-hitters, and perhaps a better time to not care about pitch counts is when the Pirates have a lead bigger than 1-0 and they aren’t facing an offense as good as the Brewers. I don’t know.
I just know that the Nationals babied Stephen Strasburg to the point where they didn’t even let him pitch in the postseason one year due to an innings limit. But even all that extra care still did not prevent him from suffering catastrophic arm injuries that ended his career at age 30. I mention Strasburg because before Skenes, Strasburg was the best pitching prospect of this century. The Nationals did everything they could to prevent his arm from exploding and it still did.
We are in an era where nearly every stud young pitcher is blowing their arm out, and so I empathize with the Pirates wanting to ensure Skenes is healthy for as long as possible. I just don’t think we know how to stop arm injuries yet. If we did, Spencer Strider, Walker Buehler, Sandy Alcantara, Jacob deGrom, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shane McClanahan, Eury Perez, Jeffrey Springs, Kodai Senga, Robbie Ray, Clayton Kershaw, Joe Musgrove, Tony Gonsolin, and a few dozen other top pitchers wouldn’t be on the injured list right now.
If the Dodgers—widely considered to be among the smartest organizations in the league—have their top EIGHT starting pitchers on the injured list right now, can we really make the argument that anyone knows anything about pitcher injury prevention?
Every team is just throwing spit wads at the ceiling to see what sticks. It seems to me that the guys who are gonna break will do so regardless of whether they are allowed to go past 100 pitches to try for their no-hitters or not. What we are witnessing from Shelton and others is frustrating but understandable fear and butt-covering.
Of course, the great irony here is that the Pirates are (in theory) babying Skenes so that he can have a long career….pitching for some other team that is willing to pay him what he’s worth.
Maybe Skenes is smarter than I am, and wants to save risking his livelihood until he at least starts making big money in arbitration or in free agency.
I just know that watching him get pulled after seven innings yesterday bummed me out, and I can’t be the only one who feels this way.
WHAT THE PAID LIST GOT THIS WEEK:
A look at how the Dodgers and Braves have gone to six-man rotations to help protect Chris Sale and Tyler Glasnow and why I think it’s the wave of the future.
Friday Night baseball chat featuring all 30 teams.
Zoom book club discussion about Sandy Koufax: A Lefty’s Legacy.
When I wrote about Chris Sale earlier this week I mentioned Vaughn Grissom, the prospect the Braves gave up to get him. Grissom has been plagued by hamstring issues this season and has only appeared in 23 games with Boston. In those games, he’s hit .148 with a .207 OBP and a .160 slug. Meanwhile, Sale is a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young, and a pitcher the Red Sox could obviously use this year as they make a somewhat unexpected playoff push.
Grissom responded to fan criticism with some spicy remarks to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com yesterday. “I just want to play my game and if they like it, they like it. If they don’t, fuck it,” he told Cotillo. “I’m here for a reason. I’m sure there’s a next guy up if they don’t like it. That’s the ever-revolving door of baseball. Just trying to play my game and help the team win.”
It should be noted that Grissom is just 23 years old, also battled an illness in May that caused him to lose 14 pounds, is playing in probably the toughest sports town in America, and is being asked to somehow make up for the Sox trading Sale away.
I empathize with him. I also thank him for giving an honest quote to a reporter about the pressure he’s under, even if its certain to rub some people in Beantown the wrong way.
AROUND THE LEAGUE:
Speaking of the Red Sox, Alex Cora used to give Mookie Betts and Xander Boegarts days off to help with load management, but Jarren Duran has played every game this season. When asked why, Cora told reporters “Because [Duran] is tougher than those guys” with a laugh. (Boston Herald / Max Cerullo)
Wander Franco was formally charged with sex abuse of a minor in his native Dominican Republic. The Rays were finally able to move him to the restricted list and stop paying him. (Associated Press).
Bobby Witt Jr. (1.12), Spencer Steer (1.079) and Jose Ramirez (1.040) have the highest OPS with runners in scoring position this season so far. (Brooks Baseball)
The White Sox have yet to win on a Monday.
We observed the three-year anniversary of Padres relief pitcher Daniel Camarena hitting a grand slam off Max Scherzer. I was there. It was one of the greatest baseball moments I’ve ever seen in person.
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have been paying for team dinners on road trips. This Mets team may have the juice. (The Athletic / Will Sammon)
Shohei Ohtani is on pace for 50 homers and 39 stolen bases this season. A 50/30 season has never been done before. Larry Walker hit 49 homers and stole 33 bags in 1997. (Balls and Sticks / Will Harris)
Speaking of the Dodgers, Freddie Freeman now has the third highest OPS+ in franchise history (168). It’s possible he could even pass Mike Piazza (170) and Gary Sheffield (170). (Inside the Ravine / Blake Harris)
Ranger Suarez has allowed 11 ER in his past two starts. He allowed 11 ER in his previous nine starts combined.
The top 5 jersey sales since opening day are: 1. Shohei Ohtani 2. Bryce Harper 3. Aaron Judge 4. Mookie Betts 5. Ronald Acuña Jr. (MLB.com)
The Yankees have not won a series in a month and frustration is boiling over. (MLB.com / Brian Hoch)
That’s all for this week! If you enjoyed this newsletter, please spread the word share it with your people! <3
How is Canelo's pitch repertoire, anyway?
Towards the end of the article you touched on a notion that I’ve wondered about for quite some time: why wouldn’t a franchise with a chronically low payroll just push a prospect like Skenes to the max, since they’ll be outbid for his services when he reaches free agency? I’m not advocating that, just questioning why front offices, especially low-budget ones, are so player-friendly regarding starting pitcher development. My cynical guess is that they want him at the top of his game in 5 years(?) or so when his trade value is at or near its peak.