Why Are the Astros So Bad Right Now?
The team that has been to four of the last seven World Series is off to an atrocious 7-18 start, even worse than the Oakland A's.
Hi friends-
Before we dive into the mess in Houston, we have some housekeeping:
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We kinda new this day was coming. But I don’t think many of us thought it would happen this year. After a decade of dominant baseball in Houston, their run as the top dog in the American League looks like it could be over.
Now, I say we knew this day was coming because this is a team that ran its general manager, James Click, out immediately after winning its last World Series title in 2022 because Jeff Bagwell thought Click used his computer too much. Before the champagne-soaked clubhouse was even cleaned, there was some kind of weird power struggle that pitted front-office advisors Bagwell and Reggie Jackson against the front-office nerds (like Click), and owner Jim Crane sided with the jocks.
After Click left, an anonymous Astros employee compared Crane to an NFL owner infamous for meddling. “Sometimes I wonder if [Crane] thinks he’s Jerry Jones,” the employee told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Passan’s piece went on to say that “[Crane] might trust Bagwell more than anyone.”
But here’s where it gets scary for me. Two weeks ago, Jackson went on The Show: A NY Post baseball podcast with Joel Sherman & Jon Heyman, and discussed why the team passed on Blake Snell.
“Being fiscally responsible, I think, is what kicked us out of the Snell deal,” Jackson said. “He signed a two-year deal, I want to say for $62 [million]. That’s too much for him. He’s been hurt a couple of times. And I think there’s incentives on top of that."
And then… the ominous part:
“Between the four or five people who make decisions with the Astros, we don't play that game,” said Jackson.
Michael Shapiro of The Houston Chronicle then gave readers a breakdown of who those “four or five” people driving the Astros to the bottom of the standings might be:
Jackson added Houston isn't quite interested in signing players to contracts that include player options. He also made a revealing comment about the nature of Houston's decision making process, in which a collection of advisors flank general manager Dana Brown and owner Jim Crane.
Brown is the leader of Houston’s baseball operations department. He's also not the only voice in the room. As we saw with Houston’s prior pursuit of Jose Abreu—in which the first baseman met with both Crane and Jeff Bagwell—the Astros owner values the input of former players, even those without front-office experience.
"We have a great leadership group with our GM [Dana Brown]," Jackson said. "Also, we have a couple of other advisers in Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell who are very much involved in our decision-making. I'm involved. [Owner] Jim [Crane] takes those decisions and puts them together, listens to our management and coaching staff on the field, talks to our GM and his staff."
The Athletic polled 40 MLB executives and asked them to rank the league’s best front offices. The Dodgers came in first with 284 points. The Astros… received five points.
Here’s how the Dodgers front office works:
Someone in the front office does a bunch of work and brings an idea to Andrew Friedman. He says yes or no. Then if a “yes” involves spending a lot of money, he goes to ownership, who either approves the deal or not.
Ownership tells Andrew Friedman to go sign Shohei Ohtani no matter what it costs.
Ownership does not interview Teoscar Hernández about a one-year deal. Ownership does not call up Andrew Friedman at 2 am with an opinion on whether to extend Ryan Yarbrough. Ownership does not make Andrew Friedman take input from Fernando Valenzuela, Orel Hershiser and Sandy Koufax on whether Blake Snell is worth $62 million for two years.
With respect to Valenzuela, Hershiser, and Koufax—who were all excellent pitchers and intelligent mentors to modern Dodgers—they cannot be expected to ALSO be payroll experts, nor would they want to be. My God, any player from any other era would *of course* think player salaries in 2024 are extravagant. The Hall of Famer Jackson signed a five-year deal with the Yankees in 1976 for $3.5 million that was considered record-breaking. Obviously he’s gonna think Snell is overpaid. Why is anyone asking him?!
What is going on?
Well, here’s what’s going on: The Astros are in last place in the AL West with a 7-18 record. They’re two games back of the Oakland A’s, a fake franchise owned by an incompetent nepo baby who has tried to make them as bad as possible so he can rip them out of Oakland (like if the horrifying A plot of Major League happened in real life).
I was willing to write off Houston’s slow start as a function of the team’s brutal schedule. The club’s first 19 games were against the Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays, Royals and Braves—and I could see all of those teams making the playoffs this year. But they’ve since dropped three of four to the Nationals and Cubs, and I’m realizing there just aren’t as many teams that the Astros are *clearly* better than anymore.
Yes, they currently have four starting pitchers (Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy) on the injured list. But the Dodgers have six (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Emmet Sheehan) and the Rays have five (Jeffrey Springs, Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen and Taj Bradley). Neither Los Angeles nor Tampa has a .280 winning percentage, because the starting pitchers they’ve called up or signed to replace their injured guys have done well enough to keep things afloat until the cavalry returns. The Astros’ replacements have looked rough. Houston’s starting pitching ERA going into Thursday was third-worst in the majors at 5.21.
The team’s offense has been good, but weird. Jose Altuvé, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez have hit like the superstars they are. Yainer Díaz and Jeremy Peña have looked solid.
Despite hitting a third-best .263 with runners in scoring position (behind only the Braves and Dodgers), they’ve scored only 101 runs (20th-best). Jose Abreu (.244 OPS) looks finished.
It’s early, but the Astros’ base running has been the worst in MLB so far, costing the team four runs already. That might not seem like a lot, but consider that with their starting rotation in tatters and their bullpen a mess, the Astros need every run they can get. Speaking of their bullpen: Despite giving closer Josh Hader a five-year contract for $95 million this past offseason to compliment excellent late-inning pitchers like Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu, their relief corps has looked more like a relief corpse.
Those three have blown six of the eight saves they’ve been asked to get so far this season. To be clear: The Astros have an MLB-low TWO saves so far this year. The Yankees have 13.
Justin Verlander has returned to give the pitching staff a much-needed boost, but he’s my age. It feels like it’s only a matter of time until he rolls out of bed and trips over his iPhone charging cord and is cooked for good.
The team might also be cursed by the baseball gods for letting Dusty Baker go.
There is some good news, though. Ronel Blanco has been a bright spot. Valdez is coming off the injured list soon. Perhaps those two and Verlander can hold the rotation together, while Hader, Pressly and Abreu improve and stabilize the pen.
Maybe on Memorial Day we will look back at the April obituaries written about the 2024 Astros and laugh. Maybe we have another 2023 Padres on our hands.
If the Astros do come back from this atrocious start, they will earn a place in the history books. No team has ever started 7-18 and made the playoffs. The worst team through 25 games to ever make the playoffs were the 2001 Oakland A’s (8-17). That Oakland team went 94-43 the rest of the way to finish an incredible 102-60. They lost the division, but snatched the AL wild card after the Mariners won an MLB-record 116 games.
Both the Mariners and A’s would go on to lose to the Yankees in the playoffs, of course. And while no Astros fan wants to lose to New York this fall, even making the postseason feels like a miracle at this point.
Spectacular! (Although, I’m sad that you don’t know about the shadow Dodger GM office of Nomar Garciaparra, Mike Piazza and Kirk Gibson.)
Please be careful near your charging cords!
Dusty got out of there just in time!