You Do Not Want the "Golden At-Bat" Rule

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Hi friends-

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Earlier this week, Rob Manfred did what Rob Manfred does whenever he’s thinking of making a controversial rule change that will weaken the sport we all love. He mentioned it on a podcast, then his office floated the idea like a trial balloon to Jayson Stark at The Athletic.

What is “the golden at-bat” rule, you might ask? Here’s Stark:

…Lots of variations have been tossed around. Here are some that I’ve heard:

• Each team gets to pick one at-bat — at any point in the game, but only once — to play its Golden AB card. So would it save that card for The Juan Soto Moment? Or would it play it in the second inning, with the bases loaded and a chance to blow up a game? Strategy alert!

• Or there’s this option: Each team gets one Golden AB per game — except only in the seventh inning or later.

• Or there’s the variation I’d vote for — where only a team that is trailing (or tied) in the ninth or later gets to use a Golden AB. I’m a fan of less is more, and two Golden ABs every game (one per team) might be overkill.

• There’s also this potential wrinkle: The Royals use their Golden AB to let Bobby Witt Jr. lead off the ninth. He makes an out. But who’s batting second? Whaddaya know, it’s Witt’s turn in the lineup. So here he comes again. Yes, that could be a thing.

If all of this sounds like a nightmare to you, congratulations on having full use of your brain.

The whole point of baseball is the immovable batting order. Managers and front offices spend entire off-seasons trying to build complete rosters that can hit lefties and righties. If they already have a guy who strikes out a ton, they might be loathe to hire and place another hitter right behind that player who does the same.

And, yeah. Imagine a scenario where Bobby Witt Jr. is used as the Golden Rule batter to lead off the ninth, and he doubles, but then his original turn in the batting order comes up. What then? A pinch runner? What if there are no runners left on the bench? We just imagine what the zombie runner on second would do?

Is there a gas leak at 1271 Avenue of the Americas?

Here’s the thing: the rule tweaks MLB has made lately have been mostly great for the game. If you have any casual baseball fans in your life, I’m sure it’s been easier to sell them on coming to games with you now that they no longer routinely go four hours. Thanks to the pitch clock, the runner in extra innings, and the inability for pitchers to throw as many pick off attempts as they want anymore, the average time of game dropped to 2 hours and 34 minutes—the shortest since 1984.

The automatic balls and strikes challenge system is also on the way. It will work like when tennis players challenge an out of bounds call, and I expect it to be enormously popular.

So why is Manfred daydreaming about this “Golden At Bat Rule?” Maybe he got a taste of how it felt to have future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman up to bat with the bases loaded and the Dodgers down one run vs the Yankees in the tenth inning of Game 1 of this World Series and he wants that every year for TV ratings. (It sure beat the hell out of the most pivotal AB in the 2023 World Series, which featured Josh Sborz vs. Pavin Smith).

But here’s the thing: the reason Freeman’s AB became legend is because the scenario he found himself in almost never happens. Only two players in MLB history have hit walk-off World Series homers with his team trailing and down to its final at-bat: Kirk Gibson in 1988, and Freeman this year.

Manfred knows that playoff expansion had the dreaded effect of random, mediocre regular season teams getting hot and making (or even winning!) the World Series. Twelve team playoffs means that we are far more likely to experience Sborz vs Pavin Smith with everything on the line than Freeman vs. Nestor Cortes, or Blake Treinen vs. Giancarlo Stanton.

A Golden At Bat Rule would essentially attempt to fix the enshittification of the sport that the expanded playoff wrought. The only way to do this is to go back to the eight team format, but major league owners will never go for it, because now they only have to spend the money to win 84 games to make the playoffs and the extra revenue that comes with it.

Anyway, a trial balloon is simply that. If you dislike this rule as much as I do, it’s your civic duty to get loud about it on the Internet and pop it ASAP.

Free Agent Happenings:

The bidding for Juan Soto has reportedly reached at least $600 million. The Athletic reports that the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers have all made bids above that number. It’s unclear if other teams are still in the mix for Soto’s services, but his agent Scott Boras said on Tuesday that Soto has begun whittling down the final contenders from that list.

Soto is said to be looking for a deal of at least 12 years. He is commanding such a haul because he’s just 26, which is a few years younger than most players are when they hit free agency. And his closest comp is Ted Williams.

The winter meetings begin next week, and the expectation has long been that Soto sign by the end of those meetings. The market for other high priced free agents (including other players Boras represents like Corbin Burnes) is essentially stalled until Soto is settled. (The thinking goes that teams might not be able to afford both. So if, say, the Mets, Red Sox, or Yankees lose out on Soto, they may pivot immediately to Burnes).

I have no crystal ball on where Soto will end up, but I still doubt Steve Cohen will be outbid. If Soto picks the highest bidder. I’d bet on his joining the Mets. The Blue Jays give me pause, though. Maybe after the devastation of losing Ohtani, they’ll break the bank here? I will be SHOCKED if he winds up a Dodger.

The way talks are accelerating, don’t be surprised if Soto signs in the next 48 hours.

Speaking of Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers announced yesterday that their first baseman underwent ankle surgery on the bum wheel that hampered him all through the playoffs. So if you’re keeping score at home, Freeman played the entire month of October with broken rib cartilage that usually sidelines a player for months, a fractured middle finger, and an ankle so gorked it required surgery.

Sheesh, that man is tough. And it only adds to his lore.

There’s no indication that Freeman playing on a shredded ankle for weeks will permanently hurt his effectiveness as a hitter going forward. But if it does? Well, he made a good trade. I’ve watched that walk-off 300 times, conservatively, studying Freeman, the crowd, his teammates, and his opponents. I find tiny new details that send me to the moon with every watch. Maybe five guys in history have a highlight like this.

Of course I hate seeing any player get injured, and will keep my fingers crossed for a full recovery. But, man. Freddie Freeman never needs to take another AB for the Dodgers for his entire contract to have been worth it.