Can These Four Surprising First Half Heroes Keep it Up?
The second half starts tomorrow. Let's look at who might be for real and who might fade.
Hi friends-
Some housekeeping:
Our book club selection for July/August is Ball Four by Jim Bouton. We will discuss it over zoom on Monday, September 9th from 5:30 PM PT- 6:30 PM PT.
There will be no Lab this Saturday as I will be attending DragCon.
But we will still have our Friday night chat tomorrow beginning at 4 PM PT and our Sunday Night Baseball chat also starting at 4 PM PT.
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The second half of the MLB season begins tomorrow, and the trade deadline is rapidly approaching. As teams assess what they have and what they need to make a run for the pennant, it’s worth reviewing the handful of unlikely players who put up amazing numbers in the first half to try to figure out if they can keep it going (or will inevitably fade) down the stretch.
*Note: under normal circumstances, a guy who went from being the number one pitching prospect in the minors to the number one pitcher in MLB in just a few months would be worthy of investigation but I don’t think anyone is surprised by Paul Skenes’ dominance. I picked two hitters and two pitchers from teams that could absolutely make noise in October if they don’t fall back down to earth. Here they are:
Seth Lugo
As you guys know, I’ve been bullish on the Royals all year. Here’s what I wrote about them back in May:
I’d call Kansas City the biggest surprise in MLB this season, except that they spent $422 million on players this past off-season, second only to the Dodgers. Yes, $288 million of that was promised to Bobby Witt Jr., but the $110 million they gave to free agents was sixth-most across baseball.
“Small market team spends money, fields winning team” is a model other franchises should try! The Padres did it, and boosted their average home attendance from 26,837 per game in 2018 to 39,055 this year—good enough for second-best in MLB behind the Dodgers (46,149).
The Royals are drawing just 132 more fans this year on average over last year (16,268, up from 16,136), but those numbers should improve as kids get out of school.
As I thought it might, attendance at Kaufman stadium has shot up as we’ve entered the summer months. The Royals are up to an average of 18,965 fans per home game, and home crowds should continue to get bigger as KC enters the second half just two games back in the wild card. Taylor Swift attending a playoff game at the K this October is still on the table.
Lugo continues to be a big reason why this team is exceeding expectations, as he leads the AL in wins with 11. Yes, pitcher wins can be an incomplete assessment of how well a guy is throwing the ball. But the fact is, Lugo is leading the majors with 20 starts and is averaging 6 1/3 innings every time he takes the ball. The fact that his arm hasn’t yet fallen off should qualify him for the Baseball Hall of Fame in this era.
Lugo’s ERA is a career low 2.48. His 3.31 FIP indicates he’s been lucky, and that’s what makes me a bit nervous. However, a 3.31 ERA is still an incredible number the Royals would be thrilled with, as Lugo’s $15 million annual salary makes him a steal.
To put how valuable Lugo has been into perspective, MLB’s six highest paid starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Jacob deGrom) will earn a combined $233 million this year. They have seven total wins. Lugo may win more games than all of them combined in 2024, at 6.4% of their cost.
While the FIP/ERA discrepancy does give me pause, there’s a chance that Lugo has broken the simulation: the dude throws nine pitches, which I’m guessing makes for a wild at-bat. He doesn’t throw hard or generate a ton of whiffs, but he induces soft contact at an elite rate. If the Royals do make the playoffs, I could see him chewing through lineups like Kyle Hendricks did in 2016 for the Cubs.
When I started writing this piece my gut told me that Lugo would fall off in the second half. But after looking at the data and taking his absurd pitch mix into consideration, I do think Seth Lugo is as good a bet as any to win the AL Cy Young this season, especially if Tarik Skubal and Garret Crochet get traded.
Ronel Blanco
If you hate the Astros, you should probably be most mad at this man for emerging as a star when Houston needed him most. On May 31st, the Astros were 25-33 and had the fourth worst record in the AL. Since then, the team has gone 25-13, which is tied with the Mets for the best record in MLB since June 1.
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