This is the Week We'll Learn if the Dodgers Have a Real Shot To Win it All Next Month

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow both face huge tests on Tuesday

After three months on the injured list due to a shoulder injury, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will return Tuesday (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

Hi friends-

I made a bunch of announcements on Thursday that you can find here if you didn’t already see them. To summarize: our book club zoom is moving from tomorrow (Monday September 9th) to Wednesday September 11th from 5:30 PM - 6:30 PM PT. We are also going to have our LA Long Game meet-up at Barney’s Beanery in Westwood on Saturday, September 28th in the afternoon. (Exact timing will depend on when the UCLA vs. Penn State football game will kick off, which the Big 10 hasn’t announced yet).

I’ll also be in Oakland for the final two A’s home games on September 25th and September 26th. I’d love to meet up with any readers who are there!

We will begin daily game chats in the Substack app on September 24th as monster division matches (Braves vs. Mets, Orioles vs. Yankees, Dodgers vs. Padres) unfold.

As a reminder, we will chat daily from Sept 24th through the end of the World Series. These game chats are for paid subscribers. Please don’t miss out on the fun! If you enjoy the Long Game you can help support me and my work by buying a monthly or yearly paid sub here:

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Now on to today’s news!

If you haven’t been following the Dodgers closely this month the situation is as follows: 1) They are currently favored by Las Vegas to win the World Series. Despite the fact that 2) They currently have eight (8!) starting pitchers on the injured list.

Those pitchers are:

Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Emmett Sheehan, River Ryan and Friday’s new addition: Gavin Stone. So basically, the Dodgers injured rotation is better than any rotation we will see in the playoffs this season. (I do not believe the Mariners will make the postseason this year because God hates it when Seattle hitters reach base).

Credit to Twitter user @DoyersDave for posting this meme of Tyler Glasnow and friends welcoming Gavin Stone to the IL.

We have discussed pitching injuries extensively, and how the big-brained “throw every pitch as hard as you can with as much spin as possible” idea that analytic-heavy teams like the Dodgers, Rays, and Astros pioneered a decade ago is threatening to ruin the sport. All ten of the hardest throwing starting pitchers from 2023 wound up on the injured list this year, with six enduring season-ending arm problems. The problem is so bad that I probably won’t draft any of the top 10 hardest throwers from this year onto my fantasy team next year. And I am dreading the day Paul Skenes goes down and the league-wide existential crisis it will cause. (Though maybe Skenes’s elbow exploding is what will expedite much-needed sweeping reform).

Anyway, now that Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are healthy, the Dodgers probably have the best offense in MLB right now. They also have one of the best bullpens—with an assist from the White Sox for selling them Michael Kopech for a bag of batting practice balls.

What the Dodgers do not have right now is more than one healthy starting pitcher I would trust in a postseason game.

If the playoffs started tomorrow, here is what the Dodgers rotation would look like:

1. Game 1: Jack Flaherty. Very good. Had they not traded for him a month ago they would have no (zero) shot at winning a playoff series this October.

2. Game 2: Walker Buehler. He returned this season after missing two years rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, and sadly has not looked anything like the dominant pitcher he used to be.

   He owns a 5.67 ERA on the season and his FIP (5.98) suggests he’s been lucky. His last five starts lasted 4 innings, 3.1 innings, 4 innings, 4.2 innings, and 5 innings, respectively. He did feel encouraged after his last outing, though, in which he gave up two runs over five. Of course, he did that against the Angels. On the other hand, Bobby Miller gave up seven runs to the same Anaheim squad the next day.

3. Game 3: Uh. Landon Knack? The rookie has tossed 54 big league innings in his life and owns a 3.00 ERA with an uninspiring 4.55 FIP. This is because he’s given up 10 homers, which is about five too many. For perspective: Kutter Crawford leads MLB with 29 homers given up. He’s done that in 161 innings. Knack would be on pace to give up 30 homers in 161 innings this season if he’d pitched that many.

4. Game 4: Rookie Justin Wrobleski. 6.40 ERA, 6.83 WHIP. 32.1 career IP. 10 homers given up. Would be on pace for 50 homers allowed over 161 innings this year. Absolutely should not be on the postseason roster under any circumstance because he’s not ready.

   OR Bobby Miller. 7.79 ERA. Completely fell off a cliff this season after a dominant rookie year in 2023 due to shoulder and knee injuries and his inability to command any of his pitches.

The Dodgers lead the Padres by 5 games in the NL West with 20 to play. There might not be enough time for San Diego to catch the Dodgers before the season ends, but these two teams will face each other three more times at Dodger Stadium before its decided. I would not be writing about the Padres potentially catching the Dodgers in the division race if LA had more than one healthy starting pitcher I trusted right now.

I don’t write this to alarm anyone. I am simply trying to inform those who exist in the non-Dodger universe just how…uh…fluid things are right now for the team with supposedly the best odds to win to all.

The team did get good news yesterday when both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow threw bullpen sessions without anyone at Dodger Stadium needing to call an ambulance. But it’s still unknown whether either will be able to start games in October.

The playoffs begin in 24 days. Here is what needs to happen for the Dodgers avoid another early exit: