Would Forcing Starting Pitchers to Go At Least Six Innings Make MLB Games Better?

The Free Friday Newsletter

Aaron Civale has averaged 5 1/3 innings over 23 starts this season. He’s gone six innings only five times. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

Hi friends-

We’ve spent much of the last few years wondering what to do stop starting pitchers from breaking. Babying minor league phenoms has not worked. The pitch clock has improved the game for fans, but it may be placing too much stress on elbows and shoulders.

After losing their fifth starting pitcher in two season to season ending arm surgery earlier this week, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes told reporters the team has been searching for answers for as to why this keeps happening. “Is it COVID?” Gomes said of the truncated 2020 season. “Is it the lockout and shortened spring training [in 2022]? Is it the pitch clock? There are just a lot of factors. And for every argument, you could have a counter, and that’s why it’s such a challenging problem.”

I don’t doubt that all of those factors have played a role in making pitchers more vulnerable to injury, but I found it curious that Gomes didn’t mention the one thing we absolutely know leads to wrecked elbows and shoulders, and that’s chasing velocity.

It’s no secret that pitchers are incentivized to throw harder than ever. Or to put it another way, that most guys must throw harder to keep their jobs.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times wrote a great piece earlier this summer about Twins journeyman reliever Brock Stewart who used to throw 91 but now throws 97. Stewart was pitching in Indy ball in the fall of 2020 and fretting about not being able to find a major league job when he met a friend of a friend’s boyfriend at a barbecue. That person recommended he try increasing the velocity on his fastball at a development facility called Tread Athletics.

Within weeks on the Tread Program, he gained five miles per hour on his fastball. Five months later, he needed Tommy John surgery.

“At 29-years-old, I gained five mph in two months, so that sudden jump? I’m sure that’s what led to my elbow breaking down,” Stewart said.

“Do I know that for a fact? No. I don’t think anybody does. But I think you’d be silly to say the added velocity doesn’t play a big part.”

He is not blaming Tread. Far from it. Without training there before and after the surgery — rebuilding his delivery so his hips and arm path were more efficient; building his flexibility, mobility and strength; and, yes, cranking up his velocity — he says he wouldn’t be here.

Stewart has emerged as one of the most effective relievers in the majors. In 39 appearances with the Twins this season and last, he has been scored upon once. His ERA this season: 0.00.

He also spent three months of last season on the injured list because of what the Twins called “right elbow soreness.”

Said Stewart: “I don’t regret anything. I’m here now. I’m helping out a good team. Injuries are part of the game. I know that part of the game.”

Stewart gave that interview in late April. Three days ago, his arm blew out again and he had season-ending shoulder surgery. As with any shoulder surgery, it’s unclear if Stewart will ever pitch at the Major League level effectively again. But if you had to ask him if he’d go to Tread and endure the elbow and shoulder surgeries again. I’m almost certain he’d say yes. According to SportTrac, Stewart earned about $700,000 in his five partial big league seasons before his velocity jump, and $1.5 million in the two seasons since he started throwing 97.

As long as velocity is incentivized, pitchers are going to continue to blow out at an alarming rate. We all know this. So what can we do to change this trend?

Well, according to a new report from Jesse Rodgers of ESPN, MLB is floating a new rule to tackle this problem:

The commissioner's office wants starting pitchers to spend more time on the mound -- pitching deeper into games -- and less time in the operating room undergoing surgery on their arms. Baseball also wants more balance in a sport that has revolved around strikeouts in recent seasons.

"We are interested in increasing the amount of action in the game, restoring the prominence of the starting pitcher and reducing the prevalence of pitching injuries," an MLB official told ESPN. "There are a whole host of options in addressing those issues."

The league has discussed a limit to the size of pitching staffs and the double-hook DH, according to sources familiar with the discussion. There is some belief around the game, however, that one idea could be a panacea: requiring starting pitchers to go at least six innings every time they take the mound.

The primary goal of a minimum-innings rule would be to immediately restore the prestige of the starting pitcher. Fans would be able to tune in to a game knowing that he would be on the mound for the majority of it.

"I do that anyway," Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo said with a smirk. "We all want to go at least six."

But in reality, starting pitchers are increasingly unlikely to reach that goal. In 2014, starting pitchers averaged just under six innings per start (5.97), according to ESPN Stats & Information. This season, that figure stands at 5.25 and is down to 4.3 in Triple-A.

MLB acknowledges that adding such a rule would not be as simple as forcing every starter to pitch at least six innings every time out -- exceptions would have to be included.

The objective is to prioritize starting pitching, not to leave a struggling starter in to reach the innings threshold while his ERA skyrockets or at the risk of injury. So the league's conversations have included carve-outs, instances when pitchers would not have to pitch the required six innings. Some instances when a starter would be allowed to leave early might include:

• He throws 100 pitches

• He gives up four or more earned runs

• He gets injured (with a required injured list stint to avoid manipulation)

Outside of those exceptions, pitchers would have a mandate to make it through at least six innings. That would force teams to rethink their pitching staffs to meet the new standards.

This “rethinking” would involve players and teams to stop focusing on maximum velocity to get outs, and start prioritizing pitch mixes, sequencing, and stamina to build up pitch counts. Basically, the rule would turn starting pitchers back into marathon runners instead of sprinters. "You would have to push command over stuff," Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told ESPN. "Pushing [pitching to] contact would be the biggest thing to prepare guys to throw six innings on a consistent basis.

"There would have to be some pullback on velocity, though that's a tough thing, because that's where you get outs."

We all know that pulling back on velocity is in the best interest of player health. Full stop. But how do we put that genie back in the bottle? Do we penalize guys who throw too hard by having umpires call a ball when they pump 100 mile per hour heaters? What if a guy like Paul Skenes naturally throws 99 while a guy like Brock Stewart does not? Who becomes the arbiter of what’s normal for one player and dangerous for another?

I don’t have the answers, but I did see a great explanation of the “double hook” idea from data scientist and former Astros R&D staffer Max Bay on Twitter. “By mandating a 6 IP minimum, the league would be imposing a desirable game aesthetic through brute force,” Bay wrote. “But this comes at the cost of another aesthetic: manager strategy. Part of the fan experience is actively anticipating/entertaining possible outcomes and decisions. That’s why I believe it would be much, much better to incentivize longer SP outings by baking in a cost to taking the SP out (like losing the DH). This leaves the decision with the manager, adding a strategic wrinkle while still achieving the goal of elevating the SP.”

Losing the DH if you take out a healthy pitcher before he’s thrown 100 pitches, or given up four runs is one hell of an idea that I hope MLB will consider.